In recent years, with the intensification of the international strategic game situation, the risk of war between India and Pakistan is also increasing. In particular, after India’s rapid economic development and becoming a relatively fast growing economy in the world, the strength gap between India and Pakistan may lead to India-Pakistan relations out of control. The Eurasian Times, an Indian media, reported that Pakistan, in order to make up for the biggest weakness in the naval war, placed an order to buy eight Chinese-made 39-type”yuan” class AIP submarines, and began to receive them in 2023. This has aroused the high attention of the Indian navy. In order to achieve the advantages over the Pakistani navy in the field of AIP submarines, India has contacted Paris, France, and signed a cooperation plan. The military enterprises of the two countries will jointly promote the research and development of India’s”domestic AIP air propulsion system”.
According to the plan of the Indian Navy, they will use the AIP system made in India on the”Karwari” class submarine to solve the key technical defects of the conventional submarine made in India. For any country, it is possible to fundamentally improve the combat effectiveness of domestic conventional power submarines only if the propulsion system is localized. The threshold for nuclear submarines is very high, and the price and maintenance costs are also very expensive. It is not a big country, and it is unable to develop nuclear submarines by itself or install a large number of nuclear submarines. It can be predicted that in the next 30 years, conventional power submarines will remain the main combat ships of the navies of all countries and will not withdraw from history.
India hopes to solve the problem that all Indian conventional submarines cannot operate underwater for a long time through the domestic AIP system, but India’s weak military industry foundation makes it difficult for them to complete this task independently, because only after the system is used on submarines and gradually improved and upgraded can it be determined whether the AIP localization project of the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization can succeed. With the efforts of New Delhi, the Indian Naval Materials Research Laboratory and the French Defense Navy Group reached an agreement to jointly solve the technical difficulties related to the integration of the Indian AIP system into the Kalwali-class submarine. The part in charge of France is very important. They will help India solve the compatibility problem and integrate the AIP propulsion system and submarine in a modular way.
If India finally realizes the localization application of the AIP propulsion system, it means that the Indian Navy’s”Karwari” class submarines and their subsequent models will have the ability to charge without floating up within 14 days of submarine activities, realizing the tactical value similar to nuclear submarines. Considering that modern naval warfare has inevitably become the mode of short-term internal competition, the 14-day deep submergence can make it play the role of surprise tactics. In the future, in the event of a maritime conflict between India and Pakistan, these AIP submarines will become”assassins”, posing a huge threat to Pakistan’s Navy’s few surface combat ships, including Chinese ships purchased by Pakistan.
In recent years, Pakistan has begun to purchase a large number of Chinese ships to enrich its maritime defense forces. In addition to four 054AP frigates, it has ordered eight”yuan” class AIP submarines. At the end of June last year, a new ceremony was held at the Shanghai Shipyard. Pakistan officially accepted the second 054AP frigate. Rashid, head of the Pakistan Navy’s group in China, said that the frigate has multiple capabilities of air defense, anti-submarine and anti-ship, and its participation will rapidly improve Pakistan’s ability to defend its maritime interests. However, compared with this small tonnage frigate, what India is really worried about is the submarine order.
The 039 yuan class submarine adopts the classic water drop hull. Compared with the previous model, its command deck enclosure volume is reduced, and the height of the submarine itself is also reduced. The displacement above the water surface is 2600 tons, and the underwater displacement is more than 3000 tons. The maximum range can reach 8000 nautical miles. It has intercontinental mobility. Its self-sustainment capacity is about 60 days, and it adopts advanced noise reduction technology such as anechoic tile and floating raft shock absorption and noise reduction technology. Its noise is less than 110 decibels. In most cases, it can be mixed with deep-sea clutter to avoid the detection of enemy ships dragging sonar and aerial anti-submarine patrol aircraft.
The submarine’s torpedo is very advanced. It uses the Yu-6 wire-guided torpedo, which is a new generation of torpedo developed by China. It uses OTTO-2 fuel and circulating piston engine. It is fast and has a long range. It can destroy a large and medium-sized destroyer once it hits the weak point of the other side. Moreover, the 039 has the ability to launch the Eagle Strike – 18 anti-ship missile, and can also suddenly strike the enemy’s aircraft carrier fleet. Therefore, Pakistan directly placed an order for 8 ships, believing them to be the”sea calming needle” of the Pakistani navy. In combination with the regional situation, India has been vigorously developing aircraft carrier fleets and large destroyers in recent years. The 039 model is almost a natural nemesis. The Indian navy cannot ignore this problem.
According to the current strength of the Indian Navy, they have built a large surface ship force, including 2 aircraft carriers, 2 large dock landing ships, 5 large tank landing ships, 11 large and medium-sized destroyers, 19 multi-functional frigates, more than 30 various surface support ships, and more than 100 minesweepers and patrol boats. The Indian Navy has 21 nuclear submarines and conventional submarines. In contrast, the Pakistani navy now has two 054AP frigates, four F22P frigates, one Alamgir frigate, one Type 21 frigate, and several Azmat missile boats. The F-22P frigate is actually a model of China’s 053H frigate, which is relatively backward.
By comparison, the strength of the Indian navy is more than six or seven times that of the Pakistani navy, which is completely incomparable. Therefore, the addition of these eight Yuan-class submarines will largely reverse the serious tilt of the balance. Because the submarine is an asymmetric warfare weapon, as long as the trajectory of the submarine is secret enough to be difficult to find, it only needs one or two submarines to solve more than ten other surface ships. During the Second World War, the German Navy gave up competing with the Allies in the field of surface ships and instead built several of the most advanced U-shaped submarines on the planet at that time. They used wolf tactics to sneak attacks everywhere in the Atlantic Ocean. In November 1942, 118 Allied ships were sunk in less than 30 days.
If the Pakistani navy is equipped with these eight Yuan-class submarines, the Indian navy will not dare to”walk sideways” in the Indian Ocean, which can be said to be a small, broad and cost-effective strategy. China has been deeply engaged in the field of AIP submarines for many years, and the technical level of Yuan-class submarines has been quite mature, while India has just started to work with France to promote the localization of AIP technology, which is obviously too late. But considering that India’s economic strength is obviously stronger than Pakistan’s, once India solves this problem and uses this technology to train new submarines in a large number, then the pressure will be shifted to Pakistan’s side.
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