The relationship between China and the United States has always been a hot issue in the international community, and the United States has repeatedly used the Taiwan Strait issue to test China’s bottom line. When the situation in the Taiwan Strait was very tense last year, the New York Times published an article saying that according to the calculation, the US military would completely defeat the PLA in the Taiwan Strait region. At that time, we didn’t know how the inference came from. The CSIC that made the inference recently announced the process of the deduction for the first time.
Before we know the specific process of the exercise, we can first draw a conclusion that the exercise is worthless. It has many very absurd views, and its judgment on many key nodes is also extremely wrong. It can be said that this is just a dream conceived by the United States in order to meet its hegemonic dream.
According to the deduction, the Japanese side will not directly participate in the Taiwan Strait conflict, but they will do auxiliary work on the side, such as allowing American warplanes and other equipment to pass over Japan’s air space. At the same time, they believe that the US military bases in Japan can also be used normally, because the Chinese side dare not destroy these military bases at will, to prevent the possibility of Japan’s direct involvement in the conflict. From this, we can see how ridiculous the performance is, and the more ridiculous point is still behind.
According to the results of the final exercise, the United States will win 18 of the 24 possible scenarios, while the United States will fail in those exercises. There have been situations in which the United States has not sent troops. From this point of view, CSIC believes that as long as there is conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the United States sends troops, the United States will win the final victory.
The war damage situation between China and the United States is given in the exercise. In most of the exercises, the war will last for about three weeks, with the United States and Japan winning and China losing.
All the main combat ships of the PLA will be destroyed in one month, with 155 fighter planes and 138 large ships lost, 10000 dead and injured, a large number of soldiers captured, and the entire navy destroyed. However, the United States only needs to pay the price of 500-900 aircraft, while losing 2 aircraft carriers, 20 large surface ships and 3200 soldiers.
How can China be said to be the top power in the world today? I’m afraid there are only two possible scenarios for such an exaggerated war damage ratio. One is that the United States has become so powerful that other countries in the world can’t fight together, and the other is that the United States is dreaming of the spring and autumn.
If the United States wants to win an overwhelming victory in the Taiwan Strait conflict, it should not only ensure that its weapons and equipment can accurately hit the PLA’s ships without any interference, but also ensure that the Taiwan independence elements can resist the PLA’s attack, vow not to let the PLA land, and Japan is willing to help the United States under the premise that its national economy is greatly affected, But if the United States can’t even do the first point, how can we talk about the latter two points?
This exercise also pointed out a so-called US bottom card, that is, to completely blockade China, which can deplete the PLA’s missile ammunition. But if we want to deal with the country with the third largest territory in the world in this way, it is probably less likely than to let Japan directly participate in the conflict.
Why did the US think tank make such a dirty deduction? In essence, it was actually a show to win, in order to boost the confidence of the US military command.
In general, this exercise is full of unrealistic fantasy, but it is not meaningless. At least, it can let us understand the thinking mode of American think tanks. I’m afraid there is no other value besides that.
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