What does the cold Double 11 show?

Have you bought this year’s Double National Day? This year,Taobao, JD and other e-commerce platforms launched the marketing promotion activities of the”Double 11″ shopping carnival early, bringing the Double 11 shopping carnival, which was originally opened one week ahead of schedule, to two weeks ahead of schedule, and calling out the”solemn promise” of refunding the purchase price, in order to attract buyers to place orders in advance. Unlike the high profile in previous years, the major e-commerce platforms will publish a remarkable report on the Double 11 Campaign at the first time. This year, Alibaba, JD and other leading e-commerce platforms did not disclose specific platform transaction data. However, we can find that the total transaction volume of this year’s Double 11 was5571100 million yuan. You should know that in 2021, the sales of the Double 11 Festival will be as high as965.1 billion. In the history of the 14 Double 11 Shopping Festivals that have been held, it was the first failure, a decrease of 408 billion yuan compared with last year, a year-on-year decrease of 73%, which can be called cliff collapse! Although both Alibaba and JD e-commerce platforms have”optimistic” descriptions, the intuitive data shows that this year’sDouble Eleven Day has indeed turned coldWhat problems do you see from the cold of this year’s Double 11? Leng Touqing believes thatat least explains the following aspects of

First, people’s consumption is weak. As one of the three carriages driving our economy, consumption is of great importance to our economy. But now, the pace of this horse has slowed down a lot, as can be seen from the sharp drop in the trading volume of theDouble 11this year. In addition, according to the data on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide were 32030.5 billion yuan, up 0.7% year on year. However, if the CPI growth index is taken into account, the total retail sales of consumer goods will decline year on yearIn terms of the industry, the number of domestic tourists during the National Day Golden Week this year was 422 million, down 18.2% year on year; The tourism revenue was 287.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, which was only 60% of the same period data in 2019. Looking at the film industry, from 2019 to 2021, the box office of National Day will be 4.466 billion, 3.976 billion and 4.388 billion respectively, while this year’s box office of National Day will be 1.496 billion. These intuitive data fully illustrate the current lack of social consumption

Second, market expectations have weakened. The market expectation is the confidence of sustainable economic development, and the weakening of the expectation will make investment and consumption become more and more tight. According to official statistics, In the third quarter of 2022, the Central Bank conducted a questionnaire survey of 20000 urban depositors in 50 cities across the country. Only 22.8% of residents prefer”more consumption”, while 58.1% prefer”more saving”. In terms of data, RMB deposits in the first three quarters of 2022 increased by 22.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.16 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 13.21 trillion yuan. In addition to reducing consumption and increasing deposits, there has also been a wave of early repayment of loans. These data show that people’s expectations have weakened. In order to deal with the uncertainty of the future economy, people began to take the initiative to reduce leverage and avoid debt risks. At the same time, people are more conservative in their consumption and will not buy anything other than necessities

Third, the economic growth momentum is insufficientOver the past 40 years, China has completed its domestic industrial layout by rapidly integrating into the global industrial chain with the opportunity of economic globalization and demographic dividend, and has sold well around the world with the high-quality and cheap”Made in China”, realizing rapid economic growth. At the same time, China’s actively promoted urbanization has promoted the prosperity and development of infrastructure construction and real estate industry. In addition to the strong consumer demand of residents, the”troika” of investment, consumption and export has jointly created China’s economic miracle. However, after more than 40 years of rapid development, many changes have taken place in the domestic and international environment. We are experiencing”great changes not seen in a century”, including the intensification of regional political conflicts, the rise of trade protectionism, the blockade of technology and raw materials against China by Western countries such as the United States, trade frictions, and the transfer of low-end manufacturing to Southeast Asian countries. It is precisely because of many changes in the domestic and international environment that the original way of stimulating the economy has become weak, but the thorny thing is that we have not cultivated new stable economic growth points, and the economic growth momentum is insufficient

There is no doubt that the COVID-19 is the direct cause of weak consumption. The protracted COVID-19 epidemic has left many people stranded at home and unable to work, thus cutting off their income. This year is even more a cold winter for individual merchants! The COVID-19 has reduced the flow of people, sharply reduced the operating income, and even failed to open the business. But they also face the pressure of fixed expenditure such as rent. The income has decreased, but the expenditure is no less! The living expenses, such as housing loan, car loan, water, electricity, heating, rice, flour, grain and oil, almost drained the accumulation of many ordinary families. We don’t have any money left, so we won’t buy as we did in previous years

In addition to the epidemic, a deeper reason for the current lack of consumption is consumption overdraft! The rapid urbanization has promoted the prosperity and development of China’s real estate industry, but it has also made nearly 80% of urban house buyers bear high housing loans, and the high down payment and monthly payment also greatly limit the current consumption ability of people, unable to achieve consumption upgrading

The reasons for the weakening of economic expectations are multifaceted and mainly macro factors. For example, the constant interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has led to the return of dollars to the United States and accelerated the outflow of foreign capital; The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the industrial chain supply chain; The impact of international events such as the Russian Ukrainian conflict on the prices of energy, food and other bulk commodities, etc. These macro factors that affect economic development will ultimately affect the economic development of different countries in a specific way, reducing economic development expectations. In July this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 in the latest version of the Global Economic Outlook Report

As for the reasons for the insufficient power of economic growth, in short, the irrational economic structure, the low matching between production supply and consumption demand, the surplus supply at the low end, and the insufficient supply at the middle and high end make it difficult to meet the multi-level, high-quality and diversified consumption needs of the people; Market players have weak innovation ability and low added value of products, so they cannot occupy the upper position of the value of the industrial chain to achieve high-quality development

In the face of difficulties such as weak consumption, weaker expectations and insufficient economic growth momentum, the country has already made a scientific and accurate strategic layout. In response to the lack of consumption, the state has introduced a number of fiscal and tax policies to support the development of small, medium and micro real economies, constantly improve the individual income tax collection standard, expand middle-income groups, promote social equity, introduce the real estate policy of”housing is not speculation”, and promote the construction of a unified domestic market, so as to activate the consumption capacity of residents and promote consumption upgrading! We will promote the construction of a new development pattern that focuses on internal circulation

In order to improve the economic expectation and growth momentum, the state also continuously introduced various preferential policies to promote new industries and actively cultivate new economic growth points. For example, in the field of new energy, China has formed new forces of new energy car making, including BYD and Geely, and its market share has also been rising. In addition to new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, clean energy and other industries have also formed international competitiveness. In addition to cultivating new economic growth points, the country is also vigorously promoting supply side reform, taking the new development concept as the idea, constantly eliminating backward production capacity, and empowering the new economy. Under the strong support and guidance of the state, China’s 5G industry, artificial intelligence industry and other new industries are also developing rapidly, and constantly improving the value of the international industrial chain

In addition to constantly optimizing the economic structure, the country is also actively expanding new space for economic development, as evidenced by the vigorously implemented rural revitalization strategy. Although China’s urbanization rate has reached the standard of modernization, the structure of the urban-rural dual economy has not completely changed, and there is still much room to improve the rural basic conditions, which will provide a new and broad space for domestic economic development

Finally, Lengtouqing wants to say that we must understand that at present, we are going through a painful period of economic structure transformation, and we will change from high-speed development to high-quality development. However, it will take some time to digest industrial policies and switch the momentum of economic growth, so we need to carry through this difficult period of time! Although this will be a painful period, as long as we can maintain our strategic determination, carry forward the spirit of pragmatic hard work, and carry forward the past, we will certainly usher in the warm spring of domestic economic development, and we will certainly realize the vision of high-quality development